US labor market continues to be ‘low hire, low fire’

An article from Dive Brief US labor market continues to be ‘low hire, low fire’

Current trends indicate slower job growth ahead as an increasing number of consumers say they’re having trouble finding jobs.

Published July 9, 2026

Lara Ewen Contributor

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Dock workers offload shipping containers at Port Everglades on April 20, 2026, in Fort Lauderdale, Fla. Just shy of 23% of consumers surveyed said “jobs are hard to get,” representing the highest reported level since January 2021. Joe Raedle/Getty Images via Getty Images

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Dive Brief:

• The U.S. continues to face a “low hire, low fire” employment market, according to The Conference Board’s latest Employment Trends Index, a composite index for payroll employment.
• The index fell for the second straight month, a pattern that suggests “slower payroll growth ahead,” Jannik Schulz, economic research associate at The Conference Board, said in a statement, adding that not many workers are quitting.
• Meanwhile, 22.5% of consumers said “jobs are hard to get,” representing the highest reported level since January 2021, per a survey.

Dive Insight:

The findings align with information from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, which reported earlier this month that total nonfarm payroll rose by 57,000 jobs in June. That figure is significantly smaller than what private-sector projections indicated.

In addition, payroll figures for April and May were revised downward by a total of 74,000 jobs, which indicated that a marked slowdown may be on the horizon, a Glassdoor chief economist said in a recent statement.

“Consumers’ pessimistic hiring outlook fueled much of June’s weakness” in the index, Schulz said, adding that this was consistent with the prevailing labor market conditions. 

The Conference Board report found that initial claims for unemployment insurance increased in June for the second consecutive month to 222,000, representing the largest monthly average recorded so far this year. 

Schulz said that while “unemployment claims remain near historical lows,” the index “interprets the increase as a negative signal for the labor market ahead.”

Nevertheless, workers who are able to create and manage artificial intelligence systems are still in demand, according to recent research from talent acquisition platform ICIMS. In particular, the job market for computer programmers, software developers and database administrators has seen significant year-over-year growth, despite increasing overall layoffs in the tech sector.

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Filed Under: Economy, Labor